Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
